At the end of 2009, aged 27, David Ferrer finished the year with an ATP ranking of 17. It had been a rough 15 months. A poor pair of Masters events at the end of 2008 knocked him out of the top five, all the way down to 12. An indifferent season saw him fall out of the top 20 for a few weeks. Many players never improve upon their mid-20′s form, so had things gone according to script, Ferrer might still be kicking around the high teens. His near contemporaries Mikhail Youzhny and Tommy Robredo have followed paths of that nature.
Instead, the Spaniard has only gotten better. He finished 2010 back in the top ten, at #7. At the end of 2011 and 2012, he sat at #5. He’s likely to conclude 2013 at his career-high position of #3. All this at the age of 31, when many players have shifted focus to their golf games.
This is unprecedented. Ferrer is only the 12th player of the last 30 years to string together four consecutive year-to-year ranking improvements starting at age 24 or later. He’s only the second to do so starting at 27, and no one has done it from a more advanced age. The only other man to match Ferru’s current streak doesn’t really compare: Wayne Arthurs improved his ranking from 1998 to 2002 up to an ’02 year-end position of #52.
Admittedly, this streak is a bit of a sideshow curiosity. But the underlying issue it reveals is more significant. Even in an era of 30-something stars on the ATP, tennis is a young man’s game. At the age when Ferrer began his resurgence, most players are fading, if they’re not already gone.
The exact trajectory of the aging curve depends on the data you choose to examine. I ran the numbers twice: first with all players in the top 300 since 1983, then limited to players born in 1975 or later. With the bigger dataset, the apparent peak is at age 23-24. The average player maintains their level from their age 23 season to their age 24 season, but every year beyond 24 brings with it an increasing decline. For instance, if we set aside those who disappear from the top 300 entirely, 45% of players improve their ranking in their age 25 season, while 2% maintain it and 53% decline. At age 26, it’s 38%, 2%, and 60%, while at age 31, it’s 30%, 1%, and 69%.